Measuring Ideological Proportions in Political Speeches

Cue-lag representation

The table below shows the cue-lag representation of the speech. For each cue term, it also displays the posterior distributions over ideology.

#	Cue term	Lag before term	Posterior distribution
#	Cue term	Lag before term	Restart		∑Left	Center	∑Right
1	make_real	104		✓	1	0	0.000199
1	make_real	104		✗	0	0	0
2	work_peopl	15		✓	0.0687	0	0.00199
2	work_peopl	15		✗	0.929	0	0
3	state_senat	10		✓	0.0559	0	0
3	state_senat	10		✗	0.944	0	0
4	small_talk	39		✓	0.163	0.00697	0.00995
4	small_talk	39		✗	0.82	0	0
5	polit_campaign	16		✓	0.0925	0	0
5	polit_campaign	16		✗	0.907	0	0
6	term_limit	2		✓	0.0157	0	0
6	term_limit	2		✗	0.984	0	0
7	polit_campaign	11		✓	0.0519	0	0
7	polit_campaign	11		✗	0.948	0	0
8	state_senat	12		✓	0.0523	0	0
8	state_senat	12		✗	0.948	0	0
9	unit_state	8		✓	0.0414	0	0.000199
9	unit_state	8		✗	0.958	0	0
10	state_senat	0		✓	0.00577	0	0
10	state_senat	0		✗	0.994	0	0
11	big_citi	14		✓	0.0633	0	0
11	big_citi	14		✗	0.937	0	0
12	small_town	6		✓	0.0273	0	0
12	small_town	6		✗	0.973	0	0
13	urban_area	7		✓	0.0352	0.000199	0.00398
13	urban_area	7		✗	0.961	0	0
14	nativ_american	30		✓	0.194	0	0
14	nativ_american	30		✗	0.806	0	0
15	world_war_ii	54		✓	0.239	0	0
15	world_war_ii	54		✗	0.761	0	0
16	assembl_line	12		✓	0.0571	0	0.00239
16	assembl_line	12		✗	0.94	0	0
17	colleg_educ	32		✓	0.137	0	0
17	colleg_educ	32		✗	0.863	0	0
18	gi_bill	3		✓	0.0193	0	0
18	gi_bill	3		✗	0.981	0	0
19	singl_mom	20		✓	0.0933	0	0
19	singl_mom	20		✗	0.907	0	0
20	work_hard	4		✓	0.0221	0	0.000597
20	work_hard	4		✗	0.977	0	0
21	same_time	33		✓	0.151	0.000199	0
21	same_time	33		✗	0.849	0	0
22	work_hard	35		✓	0.151	0	0.00199
22	work_hard	35		✗	0.847	0	0
23	work_famili	24		✓	0.112	0.000398	0.00498
23	work_famili	24		✗	0.882	0	0.000995
24	collar_worker	9		✓	0.0474	0	0
24	collar_worker	9		✗	0.953	0	0
25	work_hard	189		✓	0.632	0	0.0283
25	work_hard	189		✗	0.34	0	0
26	hard_work	98		✓	0.405	0	0.0163
26	hard_work	98		✗	0.576	0	0.00219
27	__NUM___year	91		✓	0.347	0	0.0848
27	__NUM___year	91		✗	0.563	0	0.00498
28	swim_pool	56		✓	0.305	0	0.000796
28	swim_pool	56		✗	0.694	0	0.000398
29	vend_machin	27		✓	0.125	0	0
29	vend_machin	27		✗	0.875	0	0
30	spend_time	18		✓	0.0814	0	0
30	spend_time	18		✗	0.919	0	0
31	tough_time	70		✓	0.292	0	0.00219
31	tough_time	70		✗	0.706	0	0
32	peopl_live	9		✓	0.0406	0	0.00259
32	peopl_live	9		✗	0.955	0	0.00179
33	work_hard	7		✓	0.0416	0	0.00239
33	work_hard	7		✗	0.953	0	0.00318
34	work_harder	89		✓	0.308	0	0.134
34	work_harder	89		✗	0.556	0	0.00159
35	financi_crisi	9		✓	0.0135	0	0.503
35	financi_crisi	9		✗	0.351	0	0.132
36	econom_crisi	8		✓	0.0283	0	0.0348
36	econom_crisi	8		✗	0.336	0	0.601
37	tough_time	52		✓	0.7	0	0.00378
37	tough_time	52		✗	0.281	0	0.0151
38	american_peopl	3		✓	0.0217	0	0.000597
38	american_peopl	3		✗	0.961	0	0.0165
39	put_peopl	51		✓	0.221	0	0.0358
39	put_peopl	51		✗	0.736	0	0.00796
40	hous_market	11		✓	0.0486	0.000597	0.0185
40	hous_market	11		✗	0.894	0	0.0384
41	work_hard	45		✓	0.489	0	0.0115
41	work_hard	45		✗	0.496	0	0.00358
42	unit_state	40		✓	0.188	0	0.0105
42	unit_state	40		✗	0.797	0	0.00418
43	tough_time	47		✓	0.214	0	0.00856
43	tough_time	47		✗	0.776	0	0.00219
44	big_idea	82		✓	0.299	0	0.13
44	big_idea	82		✗	0.565	0	0.00577
45	polit_parti	55		✓	0.319	0	0.00557
45	polit_parti	55		✗	0.662	0	0.0133
46	__NUM___year	45		✓	0.073	0	0.627
46	__NUM___year	45		✗	0.284	0	0.0159
47	tax_cut	29		✓	0.00239	0.00159	0.405
47	tax_cut	29		✗	0.0129	0	0.578
48	job_train	20		✓	0.00299	0	0.0661
48	job_train	20		✗	0.00995	0	0.921
49	train_program	0		✓	0	0	0.00418
49	train_program	0		✗	0.0127	0	0.983
50	middl_class	16		✓	0.00478	0.000398	0.0627
50	middl_class	16		✗	0.00239	0	0.93
51	roll_back	26		✓	0	0	0.0937
51	roll_back	26		✗	0	0	0.906
52	insur_compani	5		✓	0	0	0.0183
52	insur_compani	5		✗	0	0	0.982
53	credit_card_compani	2		✓	0	0	0.0101
53	credit_card_compani	2		✗	0	0	0.99
54	tax_cut	51		✓	0.000199	0.000199	0.156
54	tax_cut	51		✗	0	0	0.843
55	roll_back	5		✓	0	0	0.0209
55	roll_back	5		✗	0	0	0.979
56	bumper_sticker	25		✓	0.0169	0.00199	0.0728
56	bumper_sticker	25		✗	0	0	0.908
57	job_growth	48		✓	0	0	0.18
57	job_growth	48		✗	0	0	0.82
58	health_care	25		✓	0.0227	0	0.077
58	health_care	25		✗	0	0	0.9
59	financi_crisi	16		✓	0.00517	0	0.0651
59	financi_crisi	16		✗	0.00836	0	0.921
60	work_peopl	96		✓	0.108	0	0.262
60	work_peopl	96		✗	0.00517	0	0.624
61	unit_state	20		✓	0.0117	0	0.109
61	unit_state	20		✗	0.0595	0	0.82
62	auto_industri	7		✓	0.000199	0	0.0909
62	auto_industri	7		✗	0.00716	0	0.902
63	american_worker	24		✓	0.00179	0	0.0826
63	american_worker	24		✗	0.000796	0	0.915
64	auto_industri	32		✓	0	0	0.101
64	auto_industri	32		✗	0	0	0.899
65	tax_break	52		✓	0	0	0.172
65	tax_break	52		✗	0	0	0.828
66	job_oversea	6		✓	0	0	0.0229
66	job_oversea	6		✗	0	0	0.977
67	tax_break	4		✓	0	0	0.0149
67	tax_break	4		✗	0	0	0.985
68	unit_state	10		✓	0.00876	0	0.0344
68	unit_state	10		✗	0	0	0.957
69	american_worker	6		✓	0.00179	0.000199	0.0304
69	american_worker	6		✗	0.00517	0	0.962
70	tax_code	91		✓	0.00517	0.00358	0.292
70	tax_code	91		✗	0	0	0.699
71	__NUM___year_ago	34		✓	0.875	0	0.0147
71	__NUM___year_ago	34		✗	0.00219	0	0.108
72	troop_home	43		✓	0.281	0	0.000199
72	troop_home	43		✗	0.718	0	0.000796
73	rural_commun	66		✓	0.272	0	0.00338
73	rural_commun	66		✗	0.724	0	0
74	__NUM___million	113		✓	0.436	0	0.0153
74	__NUM___million	113		✗	0.549	0	0
75	commun_colleg	8		✓	0.0543	0	0
75	commun_colleg	8		✗	0.945	0	0.000199
76	young_peopl	27		✓	0.116	0	0.000597
76	young_peopl	27		✗	0.884	0	0
77	higher_educ	5		✓	0.0257	0	0
77	higher_educ	5		✗	0.974	0	0
78	__NUM___centuri	11		✓	0.05	0	0.000398
78	__NUM___centuri	11		✗	0.95	0	0
79	middl_class	7		✓	0.0384	0	0.045
79	middl_class	7		✗	0.917	0	0
80	class_famili	0		✓	0.00498	0.000199	0.00259
80	class_famili	0		✗	0.948	0	0.0446
81	save___MONEY__	6		✓	0.0884	0	0
81	save___MONEY__	6		✗	0.911	0	0.000199
82	afford_care_act	32		✓	0.000995	0	0
82	afford_care_act	32		✗	0.999	0	0
83	health_care	15		✓	0.00159	0	0
83	health_care	15		✗	0.998	0	0
84	suprem_court	2		✓	0	0	0
84	suprem_court	2		✗	1	0	0
85	young_peopl	22		✓	0.00358	0	0
85	young_peopl	22		✗	0.996	0	0
86	health_insur	7		✓	0.000398	0	0
86	health_insur	7		✗	1	0	0
87	insur_plan	0		✓	0	0	0
87	insur_plan	0		✗	1	0	0
88	__NUM___year	3		✓	0.000199	0	0
88	__NUM___year	3		✗	1	0	0
89	health_insur	6		✓	0.000398	0	0
89	health_insur	6		✗	1	0	0
90	insur_compani	15		✓	0.000796	0	0
90	insur_compani	15		✗	0.999	0	0
91	__NUM___million_peopl	6		✓	0.00119	0	0
91	__NUM___million_peopl	6		✗	0.999	0	0
92	health_insur	12		✓	0.00159	0	0.00816
92	health_insur	12		✗	0.99	0	0
93	import_issu	100		✓	0.617	0.000597	0.293
93	import_issu	100		✗	0.0878	0	0.00219
94	put_peopl	13		✓	0.0812	0	0.124
94	put_peopl	13		✗	0.522	0	0.273
95	trillion_dollar	46		✓	0.000199	0	0.665
95	trillion_dollar	46		✗	0.00299	0	0.332
96	work_hard	58		✓	0.163	0	0.159
96	work_hard	58		✗	0.00199	0	0.676
97	cut_tax	26		✓	0	0	0.239
97	cut_tax	26		✗	0	0	0.761
98	__MONEY___trillion	6		✓	0	0	0.0229
98	__MONEY___trillion	6		✗	0	0	0.977
99	bush_tax_cut	5		✓	0	0	0.0171
99	bush_tax_cut	5		✗	0	0	0.983
100	make___MONEY__	20		✓	0	0	0.071
100	make___MONEY__	20		✗	0	0	0.929
101	top___NUM___percent	29		✓	0.000199	0	0.0961
101	top___NUM___percent	29		✗	0	0	0.904
102	young_peopl	15		✓	0.114	0	0.0513
102	young_peopl	15		✗	0.000199	0	0.835
103	bill_clinton	51		✓	0	0	0.262
103	bill_clinton	51		✗	0.000199	0	0.738
104	creat___NUM__	6		✓	0.000995	0	0.0191
104	creat___NUM__	6		✗	0	0	0.98
105	__NUM___million	0		✓	0.00378	0	0.00438
105	__NUM___million	0		✗	0.000995	0	0.991
106	rich_peopl	15		✓	0.0736	0	0.0507
106	rich_peopl	15		✗	0.00438	0	0.871
107	work_peopl	20		✓	0.403	0	0.0308
107	work_peopl	20		✗	0.0685	0	0.497
108	work_hard	38		✓	0.515	0	0.0113
108	work_hard	38		✗	0.394	0	0.0794
109	construct_worker	14		✓	0.0842	0	0.0117
109	construct_worker	14		✗	0.838	0	0.0661
110	health_care	6		✓	0.0567	0.000199	0.00378
110	health_care	6		✗	0.894	0	0.0454
111	middl_class	23		✓	0.151	0	0.000398
111	middl_class	23		✗	0.847	0	0.00139
112	class_life	0		✓	0.00458	0	0
112	class_life	0		✗	0.995	0	0.000398
113	work_hard	15		✓	0.072	0	0.000995
113	work_hard	15		✗	0.927	0	0
114	futur_gener	21		✓	0.0949	0	0
114	futur_gener	21		✗	0.905	0	0
115	work_hard	60		✓	0.25	0	0.00378
115	work_hard	60		✗	0.746	0	0
116	__NUM___month	20		✓	0.0941	0	0.00259
116	__NUM___month	20		✗	0.902	0	0.00139
117	neg_ad	21		✓	0.101	0	0.000199
117	neg_ad	21		✗	0.898	0	0.000199
118	econom_theori	9		✓	0.0275	0	0.277
118	econom_theori	9		✗	0.694	0	0.000995
119	creat_job	83		✓	0.0571	0.000398	0.649
119	creat_job	83		✗	0.0959	0	0.197
120	middl_class	4		✓	0.0101	0	0.0167
120	middl_class	4		✗	0.143	0.000398	0.83
121	same_thing	28		✓	0.0969	0	0.0852
121	same_thing	28		✗	0.12	0	0.698
122	fair_share	78		✓	0.366	0	0.144
122	fair_share	78		✗	0.129	0	0.361
123	lower_tax	74		✓	0	0	0.612
123	lower_tax	74		✗	0.000199	0	0.388
124	middl_class	2		✓	0.00139	0	0.00915
124	middl_class	2		✗	0.000199	0	0.989
125	class_famili	0		✓	0.000398	0	0.00358
125	class_famili	0		✗	0.00139	0	0.995
126	singl_dai	111		✓	0.94	0	0.0203
126	singl_dai	111		✗	0.000995	0	0.0392
127	phone_call	90		✓	0.412	0	0.000199
127	phone_call	90		✗	0.587	0	0
128	god_bless	73		✓	0.302	0	0
128	god_bless	73		✗	0.698	0	0
129	unit_state	7		✓	0.0358	0	0.00876
129	unit_state	7		✗	0.955	0	0
	__END_OF_SPEECH__	3

Barack Obama

Cue-lag representation